Forecasting methodology

Forecasting methodology for the 2022 general elections

Summary

The model calculates the national support of the united opposition and Fidesz from the projections of Gábor Tóka. Details of the current national support data are available on the Vox Populi Facebook page.

The model weights the results of the last three national elections (2018 parliamentary, 2019 EP, and 2019 local elections) to determine whether the joint opposition and Fidesz performed better or worse than the national average in the given constituency.

For example, the opposition in the Pest 1 (Érd and its surroundings) constituency outperformed the national average by 11%, so the opposition in this constituency is expected to perform 11% better than the national average in 2022.

In addition, the model also uses the constituency-level results of the Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party (MKKP) and the Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) from the 2019 EP elections to account for votes cast on these candidates.

The data for the three elections are weighted in the model as follows:

  • 2018 Parliamentary election: 55%
  • 2019 European Parliament election: 30%
  • 2019 local election: 15%

The model currently does not take into account the identity of either the Fidesz candidate or the opposition challenger. The person of the candidate may improve or worsen the expected vote share of a given party alliance in certain districts.


The model will be improved with the following extra details as the elections approach:

  • Demographic data (and their influence on voting behavior) by constituency
  • Constituency-level polling data